The Swiss export sector has suffered greatly since August under the 39% tariff imposed by the US. Now the rate is to be reduced back to 15%. In return, at least US$200 billion in investments are expected to flow into the United States over the next few years.
Photo: Allianz Trade
report that part of this sum AllianzTrade, is already earmarked for investments of USD 73.23 billion over the next five years, primarily by the pharmaceutical industry. USD 67 billion is expected to be invested as early as next year. By comparison, Switzerland invested approximately USD 54 billion in the USA in 2023.
In a joint statement on future "fair, balanced and reciprocal trade," the US, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein outlined the conditions for reducing the current tariff rate from 39% to 15%. The US aims to offset its calculated trade deficit of $38.5 billion.
If the tariff rate of 39% (effectively 25%*) is maintained in 2026, export losses of US$18 billion would result, according to Allianz Trade, which currently insures business transactions worth approximately US$962 billion worldwide. With the trade deal of 15% (effectively 11%), the losses would be only half as high, at US$7 billion. The trade agreement would reduce the decline in GDP growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points for 2026 compared to the 39% tariff rate. Metals, machinery, and household goods would be most affected by the tariffs.
“Despite the 0.5% decline in GDP in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter, we expect growth of 1.3% for the current year. Exports are expected to recover as early as the fourth quarter of 2025,” says Jan Möllmann, CEO of Allianz Trade Switzerland, optimistically. “With the new trade agreement, we can raise our forecast for 2026 slightly, from the current 1.1% to a likely 1.4%.”
As quickly as possible
According to the White House, the United States, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are working to finalize the agreement on mutual, fair and balanced trade by early 2026.
